Forecasting the future and expectations in invertebrates — do they exist?

Let's start with the fact that forecasting and planning plays an important role in a person's life, allowing them to make various decisions and form expectations from future events. This fact is obvious and well known to society, but recently scientists have made a new discovery, showing that our prefrontal cortex knows the laws of statistics well.

The basic function of the prefrontal cortex is the integrated management of mental and motor activity in accordance with internal goals and plans. It plays a major role in the creation of complex cognitive schemes and action plans, decision-making, control and regulation of both internal activities and social behavior and interaction. / Source: wikipedia.org /

Studies have shown that a person who does not know the laws of statistics is able to estimate the probability of an event close to the strictly calculated probability of the occurrence of the same event using a statistical program. Scientists consider this discovery unsurprising from the point of view of biology, because all organisms live in a world of probabilities, but the data obtained are still important and confirm a number of key knowledge. Thus, the absence of mechanisms for the formation of probabilistic expectations is certainly a great threat to human survival. But are there similar abilities in other mammals?

The main problem on the way to proving the presence of prediction in animals was the selection of the necessary research model. Unlike humans, animals cannot say how confident they are that some positive event will happen, but they are able to show by their behavior that there is a prediction, depending on how long they are willing to wait for this event. How does it work?

For example, a mouse learns to perform some task for a delicious reinforcement. Depending on how she assesses the correctness of her decision, she will wait longer or less for reinforcements. Using such a model, scientists studied the behavior of mice and rats associated with probabilistic prediction and confidence in the correctness of the choice. Interestingly, the higher the food motivation of the mouse, the higher its confidence in the upcoming food reinforcement.

Do invertebrates predict expectations?

Predicting the future of invertebrates is a matter in which scientists' opinions differ. Some neurophysiologists are of the opinion that the prediction function, as we have already said, is associated with the prefrontal cortex, so the presence of such an ability in invertebrates is absolutely impossible. Another part of scientists believes that the formation of expectations is the key to preserving one's own life, which means that any living organism will not be able to survive without forecasts.

A number of studies have been conducted to prove the presence of elementary forms of prediction in invertebrates using a model associated with the study of the drosophila fly.

Within the framework of this model, it was found that when a predator appears in a laboratory colony of flies, they inhibit reproductive behavior, that is, they stop breeding new offspring. It is also interesting that after a dangerous event (the appearance of a predator), the flies continue to behave as if he is still nearby. However, as part of the same experiment, it turned out that flies not only remember and change their prognostic systems, but also share negative experiences among each other. The researchers placed a fly that had met with a predator to flies that did not yet have such experience and after a while all the flies, including the "naive" ones, began to behave cautiously, suspending egg laying.

The last key discovery in this experiment was the understanding that this effect is species-specific. Scientists planted a "naive" fly of another species with flies that met a predator, and there was no collective fear with the suspension of the offspring. It was also found that after some time of living together flies of different species, they learn to understand each other, and information about predators begins to be transmitted again.

To date, biologists may believe that animals build their internal forecasting models in accordance with the recent past, and the very understanding of the models of the animal world can have serious practical significance when planning environmental measures.

Stay up to date with the latest news on our website: www.notivory.com

Source: Materials of a lecture by biologist Varvara Dyakonovaon mammalian memory, aversive reflex and drosophila fly